Shanghai's
Real Estate - A Bubble To Pop?
The statistics tend to confirm what is visually obvious, that the
real estate market in Shanghai is soaring. Property investment has
risen 14.2% year-on-year to RMB 72 billion (EUR 8,1 billion),
commercial and residential realty sales by 16.3% to RMB 81 billion
(EUR 9,1 billion), together resulting in an overall increase in
prices by 10%. This development has raised the concern that, once
again, a bubble is forming in the Shanghai property market. Back at
the height of the Asian crisis, 50% of Shanghai’s 3.2 million square
meter capacity was empty, and Grade-A rents slumped by 75% during
three years.
To prevent this from happening again, the government has
toughened real estate regulations by increasing the minimum deposit
requirement for mortgages, strengthening the control of land supply,
and intensifying supervision over real estate loans. Moreover, the
title deed tax has been doubled from 0.75% to 1.5%, and income tax
deductions for home purchasers will end in May.
On the other hand, the real estate developers are playing down
the talk of another bubble. They argue that with Shanghai’s economy
flourishing, and the upcoming World Expo in 2010, it is natural that
real estate prices are rising.
Even though capacities have grown as much as 14-fold since the
early 1990’s, the total capacity today roughly only equals that of
Frankfurt in Germany, a considerably smaller place than Shanghai.
With an increasing domestic demand for real estate and the expected
extension of lease-terms, rents will be less cyclical and there will
be a downward trend in vacancy rates.
Whilst the debate will undoubtedly continue and a degree of
consolidation in the near term likely due to slight oversupply, the
market will stabilize in the mid- to long term. As such, there is,
and will be, no bubble to pop. New index for
China’s economy
Being dissatisfied with the quality of China’s national
statistics the investment bank Goldman Sachs decided to launch its
own monthly index to measure the development of China’s economy.
Goldman Sachs bases its China Activity Index on official key data
that is relatively difficult to be tampered with: foreign trade,
traffic levels (road, rail and air), energy usage etc. Goldman Sachs
estimates that on the basis of its index China's GDP growth in 1998
was 4 percent instead of the official 7.8 percent and for 2002 it
was actually close to 10 percent, instead of the official figure of
about 8 percent.
Considering the ongoing concerns about the quality of Chinese
statistics Goldman Sachs’s assessment provides for a useful second
look when judging China’s economic performance. This new index
however challenges the validity of analysis published by
institutions like World Bank, Asian Development Bank etc. which is
based on China’s official figures. PRC Investment
in the United Kingdom
National and provincial trading companies have had subsidiaries
in the UK for a number of years already. These include Sinochem,
Sinopec, Minmetals and Topglory.
However, since 1998 more than 30 manufacturing businesses have
been set up in South Wales, Yorkshire, Newcastle or Merseyside to
take advantage of the discretionary grants provided by the UK
government. In Scottish industrial zones, PRC companies are rumored
to be on the way to become the largest Asian investors, overtaking
Japan and Taiwan. CSRC Liberalizes
Listings of Foreign Exchanges
The CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) will no longer
review legal opinions on overseas-incorporated companies with
mainland assets seeking listings on foreign exchanges. Previously,
such companies were required to get a “no comment” letter from the
CSRC. Important Changes in Foreign Exchange
Management
China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has
announced significant liberalization of the foreign exchange system
for foreign companies operating in China. The rules come into effect
from 1 April 2003 and represent an improved investment climate.
Major measures being introduced are:
- New accounts system is introduced into the banking
system
In addition to the Settlement and Capital
Accounts, foreign investors will now be allowed to open
Multi-Currency Investment Accounts for the purpose of undertaking
construction and engineering contracts, exploration of natural
resources and risk investments (portfolio investors and venture
capitalists). Specialized accounts are also to be permitted for
acquisition of assets, expenditure related to market survey,
planning and provision of guarantees.
A new category of
Offshore Accounts is introduced to facilitate the transfer of
investment funds from a foreign investor into an existing foreign
invested enterprise. Such transfer will not require SAFE approval
if a capital receipt certificate has been issued.The new bank
accounts system will benefit foreign companies without a presence
in China but with business dealings in the domestic
market.
- New sources of foreign capital
In the past,
foreign investors’ contribution of capital would only be confined
to convertible currencies, imported equipment, intellectual
properties and RMB profit after tax. From April 2003 on, they will
be allowed (subject to SAFE approval) to contribute new
investments in the form of reserve funds from the original foreign
invested enterprise, undistributed profits, unrealized investment
returns, proceeds from the sale of shares or assets for
re-investment as well as their own foreign exchange maintained in
a domestic bank account onshore.
Foreign investors can pay
for the acquisition of new shares in Chinese companies by
remitting capital from abroad or by utilizing RMB profits
generated from China operations and other legally owned assets.
This is subject to approval from SAFE.
- Foreign investment of less than 25%
The Ministry
of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation (MOFTEC) has introduced
a new category of foreign investors who do not invest more than
25% in a China enterprise. From the foreign exchange point of
view, these foreign investors will enjoy the same privileges as
the other investors, including the ability to borrow foreign
currency loans. The new SAFE rules will still have to be
coordinated with relevant government authorities.
These new measures will facilitate the contribution of capital
from foreign investors, especially those classified as FDI who were
unable to utilize their foreign and RMB accounts in China
for M&A related activities. As expected, there may be further
implementation rules in order for the new system to be in
place. China’s Outward Investment - A New Boost
from Eximbank
The Export-Import Bank of China (Eximbank) was set up in 1994 as
a policy bank to provide export credit insurance, concessionary
loans and on-lending of foreign government funds to Chinese
corporations. Until year-end 2002, Eximbank has provided
concessionary loans and guarantees of nearly RMB 300 billion (EUR
33,8 billion) for the export of machinery, hi-tech products and
overseas activities by PRC construction firms. Certain funds are
also available to foreign funded companies in China.
The Central Government has now made assistance to overseas
investments by Chinese enterprises a prime target. It is recognized
that in order to be competitive in the global business environment,
Chinese companies will have to develop their international
investments. Eximbank is poised to provide funding for the more
efficient Chinese enterprises to set up production facilities abroad
and to cooperate with multinationals in joint overseas operations.
Chinese companies are increasingly internationalising their
businesses. Some of these companies are unknown or little known to
the overseas business community, out of this reason we want to
introduce such companies. Legend
Group Ltd.
Legend is a diversified company providing advanced IT products
and services. This ranges from designing computers to providing
Internet services, from manufacturing IT components to setting up
corporate IT solutions.
Typical for Chinese companies, Legend has a listed company in
Hong Kong in order to tap capital from overseas.
| Manangement |
| Executive Chairman |
Mr. Liu Chuan Zhi |
| Vice Chairman, President and CEO |
Mr. Yan Yuan Qing |
| The Company |
| Headquarters |
Shanghai, China |
| Regional Headquarters |
Hong Kong |
| Major Industry |
Electronics |
| Production |
Beijing and Huiyang, Guangdong
Province |
| Employees |
7,320 |
| Market Capitalization |
EUR 2.54 billion |
| Stock Ticker Hong Kong |
0992 |
| Sales |
| Sales in 2002 |
| Total: |
EUR 2.5 billion |
| China: |
EUR 2.36 billion |
| Overseas: |
EUR 0.14
billion | |
| Sales in 2001 |
EUR 3.2 billion |
| Overseas Activities |
| Products located in |
Asia-Pacific, North America,
Europe |
Legend Group now headquartered in Shanghai was established in
1984, and employs today 7320 staff. As the manufacturer of China’s
top-selling computer brand and a market share for home PC’s between
35 to 40 percent they have created a reputation that has grown and
flourished. Legends desktop computers rank fifth in the world at 2.9
percent and their commercial computers are ranked sixth with 2.4
percent of the global market.
| PC
Sales in Asia-Pacific Region (ex. Japan) |
| Rank |
Vendor |
*Q4 2002 Sales |
Q4 2002 Market Share |
| 1 |
Legend |
903,225 |
13.2% |
| 2 |
HP |
597,085 |
8.7% |
| 3 |
IBM |
430,841 |
6.3% |
| 4 |
Others |
4,916,767 |
71.8% |
| 5 |
All Vendors |
6,847,918 |
100% |
*Preliminary estimate,
Note: HP includes Compaq shipments
In 2002 Legend started shifting their operational focus from PC
manufacturing into the Digital Arena and launched so far a range of
new digital products including digital cameras, audio players,
printers and e-home products.
Beijing Rep.
Office Unit 0603, Landmark Tower 2, Chaoyang
District, 100004 Beijing, P.R.China Tel: (+86) 10 6590
6108 Fax: (+86) 10 6590 6109 |
Hong
Kong: 12/F Fortis Bank Tower, 77 Gloucester Road,
Hong Kong Tel: (+852) 2523 2171 Fax: (+852) 2810 4494
|
Shanghai
Office: Suite 1503, South Tower, China Merchants
Plaza, No. 333 Chengdu Road (N), 200041 Shanghai, P.R.
China Tel: (+86) 21 5298 1805 Fax: (+86) 21 5298 1807 |
Shenzhen Rep.
Office: Suite 1705-06, Top Office, Glittery City, No.
3027, Shennan Zhong Lu, 518033 Shenzhen,
P.R.China Tel: (+86) 755 8328 9958 Fax: (+86) 755 8328
9959 |
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